Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.586204 0.679669 0.780035 0.895458 1.024147 1.162835 1.323210
2025-03-09 0.431900 0.550421 0.687075 0.854906 1.054017 1.281215 1.558494
2025-03-16 0.316624 0.444217 0.602134 0.808763 1.068543 1.380740 1.780362
2025-03-23 0.249019 0.384218 0.563446 0.812331 1.142228 1.557367 2.111209
2025-03-30 0.179076 0.307633 0.491500 0.763604 1.144654 1.647066 2.345430
2025-04-06 0.132390 0.254111 0.442058 0.738000 1.174572 1.775551 2.642551
2025-04-13 0.095743 0.207214 0.393813 0.706822 1.193008 1.890807 2.933646
2025-04-20 0.073652 0.179134 0.369741 0.708536 1.259523 2.079633 3.342885
2025-04-27 0.054946 0.151723 0.341333 0.698947 1.307830 2.246940 3.736201
2025-05-04 0.042289 0.132507 0.323652 0.704755 1.381394 2.458828 4.211927
2025-05-11 0.031999 0.114740 0.304830 0.705542 1.446793 2.663884 4.693115
2025-05-18 0.021837 0.092437 0.271010 0.672307 1.449533 2.769462 5.029109
2025-05-25 0.013807 0.071603 0.235215 0.630342 1.435093 2.852121 5.346753
2025-06-01 0.009569 0.060034 0.218034 0.624003 1.486411 3.050791 5.867916
2025-06-08 0.006255 0.048932 0.198233 0.607942 1.517093 3.216908 6.348370
2025-06-15 0.004652 0.043884 0.193997 0.627648 1.622479 3.525229 7.090298
2025-06-22 0.002772 0.034620 0.172953 0.601609 1.629625 3.655429 7.535371
2025-06-29 0.001715 0.028454 0.159341 0.591583 1.669739 3.850283 8.106316
2025-07-06 0.000978 0.022769 0.144471 0.574504 1.691767 4.012169 8.628533
2025-07-13 0.000633 0.019833 0.139130 0.583551 1.774758 4.298759 9.392386
2025-07-20 0.000368 0.016637 0.130789 0.581635 1.831582 4.537403 10.081344
2025-07-27 0.000225 0.014558 0.126592 0.591951 1.919564 4.845497 10.916320
2025-08-03 0.000126 0.012505 0.121186 0.597069 1.995221 5.133318 11.727600